The market is not the economy – follow the leaders

Most large asset gains in bull markets occur in the early stages, in the first 12 to 18 months. However, by the time a big surge in the broad market indexes takes hold, many of the best stocks have been on the rise for weeks. The time is now, in the current bear market, to […]

Use accumulation volume to find powerful stocks

Most recently, we have witnessed a significant bear market in megatrend stocks and themes (cloud, fintech, artificial intelligence, millennials, digital health, cybersecurity, etc.) as well as in several high-quality companies such as Adobe or Partners Group. Is there a regime change taking place from the old favorites to a different type of stock and theme, […]

What is market breadth and why is it so important?

What is market breadth and why is it so important? Most recently, we have been hearing the outcry about market breadth, which has deteriorated significantly. At Tramondo, we strongly believe in the importance of what the market shows us beneath the surface. Therefore, market breadth is a component of our four pillars in our risk […]

Spotlight on: Drawdown management

One thing is certain. There will be another crisis, as there have been numerous in the last 22 years alone. However, contrary to the prophets of doom, we hope to provide a pragmatic approach to proactively and adaptively dealing with the uncertainty of when it will happen and how extensive it will be. Please download […]

Our Five Thematic Investing Rules

Our five thematic investing rules To paraphrase famous physicist Richard Feynman’s quote on quantum mechanics: the feeling of having finally grasped thematic investing indicates that one hasn’t understood thematic investing at all. Simplistic approaches to the segment inevitably lead to disappointment, but investors who approach it strategically, yet with an adaptive mindset and an active […]

Are price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios really important?

Like most investors, you have probably learned the most important thing you need to know about a stock is its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Well… get ready for a big surprise, particularly for the most successful stocks of the last 100+ years. For ages, analysts have used P/E ratios as their basic measurement tool in deciding […]

Power Earnings Gap (PEG)

When earnings season is in full swing, every investor has his favorite setup to trade and follow. At Tramondo, our favorite setup is the “Power Earnings Gap” – in short we call it “PEG”, which was originally created by @traderstewie. Why? Because a “PEG” highlights so many traits of very successful companies and works best […]

The Longer the Base the Higher the Space

“The longer the base, the higher the space”, as they say. And that just means that a long base leads to a much longer and stronger move when it does finally begin. At Tramondo, we like to focus on bases or as we call them – box consolidations. But what is a base? Simply, it […]

Follow-up on Margin Debt

Follow-up on our “Notes From The Field” post in March 2021 – Margin Debt.  Three months ago we highlighted the contrarian sentiment indicator that has flagged three major market tops (1972, 2000, 2007) since 1970. With the most recent data, the year-over-year change in margin-debt has risen above 55%. Once this threshold is exceeded, it […]